📌 Rockets vs Warriors odds, prediction, time 2025 NBA playoff picks, Game 6 best bets from proven model

🏀 Rockets vs Warriors In Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Playoffs, the Houston Rockets secured a 115–107 victory over the Golden State Warriors, leveling the series at 3–3 and forcing a decisive Game 7. Fred VanVleet led the Rockets with 29 points, including six three-pointers, while Alperen Şengün contributed 21 points and 14 rebounds. Steven Adams added 17 points off the bench, providing a significant boost to Houston’s offense. The Rockets’ defense was pivotal, limiting the Warriors to 41% shooting and capitalizing on 17 turnovers .

📌 Rockets vs Warriors – Game 6 Overview

Category

Details

🏟️ Matchup

Warriors (7) vs. Rockets (2) – Game 6

Time

Friday, May 2 at 9:00 PM ET

📍 Location

Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

📺 TV/Streaming

ESPN / Sling TV / FuboTV (Free Trial Available)

💰 Spread

Warriors -5.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

🎯 Over/Under

207.5 points (opened at 204.5)

💸 Moneyline

GSW -239

📊 ATS Record (2024–25)

Rockets: 46-40-1

🏀 Game Preview: Stakes High as Warriors Look to Close

Golden State had the chance to finish the series at home with a 3–2 lead but fell short in Game 6. The Houston Rockets dominated in Game 5 and carried that momentum into San Francisco, handing the Warriors a tough 115–107 loss.

Stephen Curry, despite being listed as available with a thumb issue, led Golden State with 29 points. However, his shooting (9-of-23) was inefficient, and the Warriors shot just 30.6% from deep.

🗂️  Rockets vs Warriors In Game 6 of the 2025 Details

Category

Details

Final Score

Rockets 115, Warriors 107

Series Status

Tied 3–3

Top Scorer (HOU)

Fred VanVleet – 29 points

Top Scorer (GSW)

Stephen Curry – 29 points

Game 7 Location

Houston

Betting Odds

GSW -5.5, O/U 207.5

For more detailed analysis and betting insights, consider visiting reputable sports betting platforms and consulting expert opinions.

📈 Betting Insights: Odds and Line Movement

The betting line opened at GSW -5.5, with the total increasing from 204.5 to 207.5 points. The Warriors’ home record of 24-17 is strong, but momentum clearly favors the Rockets entering Game 7.

  • Favorite: Golden State (-5.5)
  • Total Points: 207.5 (leaning Under by model projection)
  • Moneyline: GSW -239 / HOU +196

📊 Model Analysis: Simulated 10,000 Times

🔍 SportsLine Projection Model has simulated this matchup 10,000 times with the following key takeaways:

  • Lean: Under 207.5 total points
  • Spread Confidence: One side hits over 50% of simulations
  • Model Record: 156-116 on top-rated picks since 2024 playoffs began
  • ATS this season: 22-11 (67%) on NBA spread picks

🔥 Why Golden State Could Cover the Spread

  • Stephen Curry continues to be the primary scorer and distributor, averaging 23.4 points and 6.2 assists. He’s also hit 4+ threes in three playoff games so far.
  • Jimmy Butler adds two-way value. In the series, he’s averaging 15.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.8 steals.
  • Golden State is playing at home, where they’ve won crucial playoff games before, and have a stronger bench rotation compared to Houston.

💪 Why Houston Could Cover the Spread

  • Fred VanVleet has elevated his play, averaging 17 PPG and shooting 38% from 3, including 25+ points in back-to-back games.
  • Amen Thompson, a rising star, has become a playoff X-factor, contributing across the board: 14.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game.
  • Veteran Steven Adams played a key role in Game 6 with a season-high 17 points, stabilizing the Rockets’ frontcourt.

🎯 Player to Watch: Stephen Curry

Despite a thumb injury, Curry leads the team and series in scoring. His ability to hit big shots late keeps Golden State in contention, but shooting efficiency and support from others (like Buddy Hield and Draymond Green) are crucial.

🚨 X-Factor: Amen Thompson’s Athletic Impact

At just 22, Thompson has posted double-digit scoring in five of six playoff games and brings elite perimeter defense. In Game 6, his stat line (25 PTS, 6 REB, 5 STL, 3 BLK) was crucial.

📅 What’s Next: Game 7 on Sunday

With the series tied 3–3, the decisive Game 7 will return to Houston, where the Rockets have already displayed dominance. The winner will advance to face the Minnesota Timberwolves, who eliminated the Lakers 4–1.

🧠 Expert Tip: Betting Strategy Suggestions

  • Lean Under: Game pace and defensive pressure suggest a lower-scoring affair.
  • Live Bets: Consider in-play betting on total points based on early shooting trends.
  • Player Props: VanVleet over on threes, Curry points over if he starts strong.

What time is Warriors vs. Rockets?

Game 6 between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors will tip-off at 9 p.m. ET on May 2 at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California.

How to watch Warriors vs. Rockets playoff game: TV, stream

  • Time: 9 p.m. ET
  • Location: Chase Center (San Francisco, California)
  • TV: ESPN
  • Stream: Sling TV

Rockets vs. Warriors highlights 2025

🏀 Game 6 Full Box Score – Rockets vs. Warriors

🚀 Houston Rockets Player Stats

Player

PTS

REB

AST

FG

3PT

FT

PF

MIN

STL

BLK

TO

+/-

FPTS

Starters

Fred VanVleet

29

8

8

7/13

6/9

9/9

3

39

0

0

2

+12

51

Alperen Şengün

21

14

6

8/20

0/2

5/7

3

37

3

0

2

+7

48

Amen Thompson

14

7

2

5/13

0/1

4/6

2

35

3

0

2

+10

26

Jalen Green

12

5

3

3/11

1/6

5/6

1

32

0

1

1

+20

23

Dillon Brooks

3

1

2

1/5

0/3

1/2

4

18

1

0

1

+1

8

Bench

Steven Adams

17

5

0

4/4

0/0

9/16

1

31

1

3

0

+15

26

Jabari Smith Jr.

8

3

1

3/4

2/3

0/0

1

18

0

0

2

+9

11

Tari Eason

8

2

1

3/4

2/3

0/0

2

16

4

1

0

+2

17

Aaron Holiday

3

1

0

1/2

1/1

0/0

1

5

0

0

0

-8

4

Jeff Green

0

0

0

0/0

0/0

0/0

0

1

0

0

0

-8

0

Cam Whitmore

0

0

0

0/1

0/1

0/0

0

1

0

0

0

-8

0

Reed Sheppard

0

0

0

0/1

0/1

0/0

0

1

0

0

0

-6

0

Nate Williams

0

0

0

0/0

0/0

0/0

0

1

0

0

1

-6

-1

🟡 Golden State Warriors Player Stats

Player

PTS

REB

AST

FG

3PT

FT

PF

MIN

STL

BLK

TO

+/-

FPTS

Starters

Stephen Curry

29

7

2

9/23

6/16

5/6

4

41

2

1

5

-11

38

Jimmy Butler

27

9

8

7/17

1/6

12/14

2

42

0

1

1

-12

52

Draymond Green

8

5

7

3/8

1/4

1/2

3

36

0

3

4

-8

26

Gary Payton II

5

3

1

2/5

1/4

0/0

3

19

1

0

1

-12

10

Buddy Hield

0

3

0

0/4

0/4

0/0

4

16

0

0

1

-3

2

Bench

Moses Moody

13

2

1

5/13

3/5

0/0

2

22

0

1

1

-16

17

Brandin Podziemski

10

7

3

4/9

2/6

0/0

3

28

1

0

2

-3

22

Pat Spencer

6

1

1

3/3

0/0

0/0

1

2

0

0

0

+7

9

Quinten Post

5

1

2

2/6

1/4

0/0

5

17

1

0

0

-9

11

Gui Santos

2

0

1

1/1

0/0

0/0

0

2

0

0

0

+7

4

Trayce Jackson-Davis

2

2

0

1/1

0/0

0/0

0

2

0

0

0

+7

4

Kevon Looney

0

2

0

0/0

0/0

0/0

2

2

0

0

0

-1

2

Braxton Key

0

0

0

0/0

0/0

0/0

1

2

1

0

0

+7

1

Kevin Knox II

0

0

0

0/0

0/0

0/0

0

2

0

0

1

+7

-1

🔢 Final Score by Quarter

Team

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Final

🟡 Warriors (7)

21

27

36

23

107

🚀 Rockets (2)

25

28

33

29

115

📊 Betting Overview: Game 6 Odds and Predictions

Prior to Game 6, the Golden State Warriors were favored by 5.5 points, with an over/under set at 207.5 points. The Warriors had a moneyline of -239, while the Rockets were at +196 .

📈 Key Player Performances

🔥 Fred VanVleet (HOU)

VanVleet’s 29-point performance was instrumental in the Rockets’ victory. His proficiency from beyond the arc and ability to drive to the basket kept the Warriors’ defense on edge throughout the game.

🛡️ Alperen Şengün (HOU)

Şengün’s double-double, with 21 points and 14 rebounds, showcased his dominance in the paint. His presence was crucial in both scoring and limiting the Warriors’ second-chance opportunities.

🎯 Stephen Curry (GSW)

Despite leading the Warriors with 29 points, Curry’s 9-of-23 shooting and 6-of-16 from three-point range highlighted the challenges faced by Golden State’s offense. His performance underscores the importance of support from teammates in high-pressure games.

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